Search results for "Distribution modelling"
showing 10 items of 11 documents
Predicting valuable forest habitats using an indicator species for biodiversity
2020
Intensive management of boreal forests impairs forest biodiversity and species of old-growth forest. Effective measures to support biodiversity require detection of locations valuable for conservation. We applied species distribution models (SDMs) to a species of mature forest, the northern goshawk (Accipiter gentilis, goshawk), that is often associated with hotspots of forest biodiversity. We located optimal sites for the goshawk on a landscape scale, assessed their state under intensified logging operations and identified characteristics of goshawks' nesting sites in boreal forests. Optimal sites for the goshawk covered only 3.4% of the boreal landscape and were mostly located outside pro…
Macrosystem community change in lake phytoplankton and its implications for diversity and function
2023
Aim We use lake phytoplankton community data to quantify the spatio-temporal and scale-dependent impacts of eutrophication, land-use and climate change on species niches and community assembly processes while accounting for species traits and phylogenetic constraints. Location Finland. Time period 1977–2017. Major taxa Phytoplankton. Methods We use hierarchical modelling of species communities (HMSC) to model metacommunity trajectories at 853 lakes over four decades of environmental change, including a hierarchical spatial structure to account for scale-dependent processes. Using a “region of common profile” approach, we evaluate compositional changes of species communities and trait profil…
Mapping a ‘cryptic kingdom’: Performance of lidar derived environmental variables in modelling the occurrence of forest fungi
2016
Abstract Fungi are crucial to forest ecosystem function and provide important provisioning, regulating, supporting, and cultural ecosystem services. As major contributors to biomass decomposition, fungi are important to forest biogeochemical cycling and maintenance of vertebrate animal diversity. Many forest plant species live in a symbiotic relationship with a fungal partner that helps a host plant to acquire nutrients and water. In addition, edible fungi are recreationally as well as economically valuable. However, most fungi live in very cryptic locations (e.g. in soils and interior plant tissues) and are only visible when their ephemeral fruiting bodies are produced, making fungal occur…
Predicting future thermal habitat suitability of competing native and invasive fish species: From metabolic scope to oceanographic modelling
2015
Global increase in sea temperatures has been suggested to facilitate the incoming and spread of tropical invaders. Here, we determined the effect of temperature on the aerobic metabolic scope of two competing fish species, one native and one invasive, and we predicted their future thermal habitat suitability.
The story of endurance:Biogeography and the evolutionary history of four Holarctic butterflies with different habitat requirements
2021
Aim: Biogeographical studies on the entire ranges of widely distributed species can change our perception of species’ range dynamics. We studied the effects of Pleistocene glacial cycles on current butterfly species distributions, aiming to uncover complex biogeographic patterns in the Holarctic, a region dramatically affected by Cenozoic climate change. Location: Eurasia and North America. Taxon: Boloria chariclea, Agriades optilete, Carterocephalus palaemon, Oeneis jutta. Methods: We reconstructed the biogeographic history of four butterfly species differing in habitat preferences (B. chariclea – tundra, A. optilete – bogs, C. palaemon – temperate grasslands, O. jutta – taiga), using one …
Modéliser la réponse des espèces marines antarctiques aux changements environnementaux. Méthodes, applications et limites.
2021
Among tools that are used to fill knowledge gaps on natural systems, ecological modelling has been widely applied during the last two decades. Ecological models are simple representations of a complex reality. They allow to highlight environmental drivers of species ecological niche and better understand species responses to environmental changes. However, applying models to Southern Ocean benthic organisms raises several methodological challenges. Species presence datasets are often aggregated in time and space nearby research stations or along main sailing routes. Data are often limited in number to correctly describe species occupied space and physiology. Finally, environmental datasets …
Predictive distribution models of European hake in the south-central Mediterranean Sea
2017
The effective management and conservation of fishery resources requires knowledge of their spatial distribution and notably of their critical life history stages. Predictive modelling of the European hake (Merluccius merluccius L., 1758) distribution was developed in the south-central Mediterranean Sea by means of historical fisheries-independent databases available in the region. The study area included the international waters of the south-central Mediterranean Sea and the territorial waters of Italy, Malta, Tunisia and Libya. Distribution maps of predicted population abundance index, and probabilistic occurrence of recruits and large adults were obtained by means of generalized additive …
Species distributions models may predict accurately future distributions but poorly how distributions change: A critical perspective on model validat…
2023
Aim: Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to make predictions on how species distributions may change as a response to climatic change. To assess the reliability of those predictions, they need to be critically validated with respect to what they are used for. While ecologists are typically interested in how and where distributions will change, we argue that SDMs have seldom been evaluated in terms of their capacity to predict such change. Instead, typical retrospective validation methods estimate model's ability to predict to only one static time in future. Here, we apply two validation methods, one that predicts and evaluates a static pattern, while the other measures change…
Assessing the spatiotemporal persistence of fish distributions: a case study on two red mullet species (Mullus surmuletus and M. barbatus) in the wes…
2020
Understanding the spatiotemporal persistence of fish distributions is key to defining fish hotspots and effective fisheries-restricted areas (FRAs). Hierarchical Bayesian spatiotemporal models provide an excellent framework to understand these distributions, as they can accommodate different spatiotemporal behaviour in the data, primarily due to their flexibility. The aim of this research was to characterize the fundamental behavioural patterns of fish as persistent, opportunistic or progressive by comparing different spatiotemporal model structures in order to provide better information for marine spatial planning. To illustrate this method, the spatiotemporal distributions of 2 sympatric …
Assessing global range expansion in a cryptic species complex: insights from the red seaweed genus Asparagopsis (Florideophyceae)
2017
The mitochondrial genetic diversity, distribution and invasive potential of multiple cryptic operational taxonomic units (OTUs) of the red invasive seaweed Asparagopsis were assessed by studying introduced Mediterranean and Hawaiian populations. Invasive behavior of each Asparagopsis OTU was inferred from phylogeographic reconstructions, past historical demographic dynamics, recent range expansion assessments and future distributional predictions obtained from demographic models. Genealogical networks resolved Asparagopsis gametophytes and tetrasporophytes into four A. taxiformis and one A. armata cryptic OTUs. Falkenbergia isolates of A. taxiformis L3 were recovered for the first time in t…